"Black Summer" The Australian Bushfires of 2019-2020

     The 2019/20 Bushfire Season in Australia began in June 2019, and all fires were either contained or extinct by March 4, 2020 (Disaster Philanthropy, 2019). Although the bushfires burned across all six states, the areas most affected were New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia.

https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/hazardnotes/68

    In the 2019/20 Bushfire season, more than 46 million acres (18,615,540 Hectares, 72,000 mi2) were burned, 34 human lives were lost directly related to the fires (CDP, 2019), and at least 445 human lives were lost indirectly (smoke inhalation), and put over 4,000 people in the hospital (Walhquist, 2020). Overall, the economic impact will far exceed the Black Saturday fires that cost USD $2.9 billion (CDP, 2019). Overall, the economic impact will far exceed the Black Saturday fires that cost USD $2.9 billion (CDP, 2019). Economist John Quiggin from the University of Queensland estimates USD 75,332,400 (A100 billion) of tangible costs as of January 6, 2020 (The Conversation, 2020). It is noted that the actual cost of this natural disaster will not be known for some time, as there are several weeks of fire season remaining (The Conversation, 2020). Of the total area burnt, 8.9 million hectares of native forest was burnt (Davey et al., 2020)

    The Black Summer bushfires burned more area than any fire in New South Wales (NSW), with one of them being the largest forest fire in all of Australian history (Filkov et al., 2020). In Victoria, the season brought the highest number of fires, area burned, and second highest of houses burned this season. New South Wales had the highest number of area burned in the last 20 years, and South Australia had the highest number of homes lost during that season, as well as in the last 20 years (Filkov et al., 2020). 

              On record, 2019 was Australia’s warmest year (excluding parts of northwest Queensland and the northern tropics). Figure 1 shows the mean temperatures compared to historical observations (A) and mean temperature anomalies (B) (Filkov et al., 2020). January 2019 was Australia's warmest month. 2019 was also the driest year, with the amount of rainfall below 40% below the average for 1961-1990. In fact, for 70% of Australia, rainfall totals were in the lowest 10% of historical observations, with July 2019- December 2019 being among the ten driest for their month (Filkov et al., 2020). Figure 2 shows the rainfall deciles for (1990 to) 2019 (A) and annual mean rain (B), the black lines shows the moving average). The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is the main contributor to the climate of Australia, and it was a strong positive in 2019, which contributed to the drought in Australia and low humidity (and intense flooding in Africa) (Filkov et al., 2020). The IOD disperses sea surface temperatures between Africa and Australia, so a positive IOD contributes to drought in Australia and floods in Africa, and the reverse when negative (Filkov et al., 2020). The combination of “a record of dryness, based on rainfall and evaporation, with meteorological variables for wind speed, temperature, and humidity” (Filkov et al., 2020) is used to measure the fire danger in the forests of Australia, called the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI). The FFDI, combined with high temperatures, caused an increase in fuel availability (Filkov et al., 2020). By spring, more than 95% had an FFDI above average, 60% of which were the highest on record for a particular area (Filkov et al., 2020). The states with record highs were New South Wales, Queensland, Northern Territory, Western Australia, and Tasmania (Filkov et al., 2020).  Figure 3 shows the spring 2019 accumulation of FFDI in Australia (A), as well as the accumulated values from 1950 to 2019 (B); the black line is the linear trendline for the data (Filkov et al., 2020).

(Filkov et al., 2020)

        

    I would like to say that prescribed burns will mitigate this in the future, but climate change and global warming may make them a futile attempt in some areas. The Parliament of Australia has outlined several ways they mitigate catastrophic fires including preventing fire ignition, reducing intensity by reducing fuel load, improving measures taken to protect life and assets in built areas and making communities more resilient to fire, and educating the public. In regards to arson, it is rare for law enforcement to identify those responsible but if caught the arsonist will face prosecution (Parliament of Australia). The Parliament of Australia also recognizes that fire is a natural occurrence in Australia, therefore complete prevention will not be possible. 

Sources:

 

Center for Disaster Philantropy (CDP). 2019. Updated 2020, October. 2019-2020 Australian Bushfires. September 9. Accessed 12/11/2020. https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disaster/2019-australian-wildfires/

Davey, S. M., A. Sarre. 2020. Editorial: the 2019/20 Black Summer bushfires’. June 04. Australian Forestry. Volume 83, 2020. Issue 2. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00049158.2020.1769899

Filkov, Alexander I., Tuan Ngo, Stuart Matthews, Simeon Telfer, Trent D. Penman. 2020. Impact of Australia’s catastrophic 2019/20 bushfire season on communiites and environment. Retrospective analysis and current trends. Journal of Safety Science and Resilience, Volume 1, Issue 1. Pages 44-56. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449620300098

Parliament of Australia. ND. Chapter 3—bushfire mitigation. Accessed 12/11/2020. https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Former_Committees/agric/completed_inquiries/2008-10/bushfires/report/c03

The Conversation. 2020. With costs approaching $100 billion, the fires are Australia’s costliest natural disaster. January 16. Accessed 12/11/20

Wahlquist, Calla. 2020. Australia’s summer bushfire smoke killed 445 and put thousands in hospital, inquiry hears. May 20. Accessed 12/11/2020. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/26/australias-summer-bushfire-smoke-killed-445-and-put-thousands-in-hospital-inquiry-hears