Hurricane Milton

 Hurricane Milton: October 9, 2024

Figure 1. Damage from Hurricane Milton in St. Petersburg Florida showing the roof of Tropicana Field torn off (Schilken 2024). 

Hurricane Milton struck the western coast of the Florida panhandle in the late hours of October 9, 2024. The storm system caused flash flooding, storm surges over 8 feet, and 46 tornadoes, the most ever in Florida in over 70 years (Belles et al 2024). Some of the most affected areas were St. Petersburg, Fort Myers, Sarasota, and Tampa Bay (Ahmedzade et al 2024).

Figure 2. NWS Map showing path and size of Hurricane Milton from the first advisory on October 5, 2024 through the last advisory on October 10, 2024 (National Hurricane Center 2024).

    Hurricane Milton was first identified as a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico on October 5, 2024 and developed into a hurricane on October 6. This storm quickly developed into a Category 5 hurricane by October 8. Fortunately by the time it made landfall on October 9, Hurricane Milton weakened back to a Category 3 hurricane (Belles et al 2024). The storm system claimed the lives of at least 14 people (Lamb 2024). 

    There were several key components of the storm system that caused damages. One component was the tornado outbreak. A total of 46 tornadoes were manifested as a result of Hurricane Milton moving through Florida. The deadliest tornado was an EF3 tornado that touched down in St. Luice, Florida and claimed the lives of six people (Belles et al 2024). Rains from Hurricane Milton caused flash floods. Areas east of Tampa received as much as two feet of rain between October 9 and 10 as a result of the hurricane. Tampa Bay received 11 inches of rain in just one day, breaking a 100 year record (Belles et al 2024). Winds reached speeds over over 100 mph on the Florida coast. Planes were flipped, a crane was toppled, and the top of Tropicana Field was even ripped off due to the high speed winds (Fig. 1). 

    Hurricane Milton caused an estimated $50 billion in damages (Lamb 2024). One global insurer estimated that it lost an estimated $300 million from insurance claims put in due to storm damages. Hurricane Milton could potentially have lasting effects on Florida's ecosystem. One such example is a wastewater treatment plant in Leesburg, Florida. Flooding from Hurricane Milton caused a backup generator to not work, and 2 million gallons of untreated wastewater spilled into Leesburg’s streets as a result. This water could contain fecal coliforms and bacteria like E. coli, and could have negative impacts on the surrounding environment or seep into private water wells (Price 2024). 

Figure 3. Map of Total Rainfall across Florida due to Hurricane Milton (Belles et al 2024).

While the impacts of Hurricane Milton on Florida were great, data suggests that greater losses were prevented as a result of evacuation mandates and warning systems. Cell phone data showed that areas around the west coast of Florida where the hurricane made landfall had evacuation rates of 80 to 90 percent (Lamb 2024). This evidence shows that storm alerts can be effective in getting people directly out of harm's way. The alerts were effective at moving people off the coasts, but evacuation rates further inland were between 45 and 50 percent (Lamb 2024). Reasons for this drop in evacuation were unclear, but it was mentioned that people with pets and senior residents were less likely to evacuate (Lamb 2024). Responding to the evacuation orders maybe could have prevented some of the deaths from occurring.

In preparing for Hurricane Milton, many gas stations in Florida ran out of gas. It was reported on October 9, 2024, just hours before the storm hit, that nearly one in four gas stations had run out of fuel (Isidore and Egan 2024). The gas shortage not only came from people trying to fuel up before they evacuate, but also people who planned on staying, filling up gas tanks to power generators (Isidore and Egan 2024). The shortage was even worse in places like Tampa, where nearly two thirds of gas stations were without fuel (Isidore and Egan 2024). This is just one example of an unforeseen impact that can come as a result of a natural disaster. Mitigation of unforeseen natural disaster impacts is tough. Gas could have been rationed out potentially in order to better control gas amounts in the area. 

One more important aspect of Hurricane Milton is that this hurricane is a perfect example of how climate change is causing more frequent and potent natural disasters. Scientists found that anthropogenic climate change caused Hurricane Milton to produce 20-30% more rainfall and 10% stronger winds (St. John 2024). The surge in storm strength was driven by warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico, 1 degree Celsius warmer than the 1991-2020 average (St. John 2024). Another study suggested that in the absence of human induced climate change, Hurricane Milton would have made landfall as a Category 2 Hurricane as opposed to a Category 3 Hurricane (St. John 2024).

Figure 4. Graph comparing wind speeds of Hurricane Milton and Hurricane Wilma shortly before making landfall in Florida. Note how soon Hurricane Milton peaked, only 50 hours before making landfall (St. John 2024).

Video 1. News Broadcast from NBC showing the extent of the damage from the storm system. Includes flood damage, tornado damage, wind damage, and even fires that resulted from blown transformers.

References

Ahmedzade, T., Swan, L., & Betts, A. October 2024. A Visual Guide to the Damage Caused by Hurricane Milton. Accessed November 3, 2024. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/10/hurricane-milton-maps-charts-graphics-damage#:~:text=For%20about%20eight%20hours%2C%20the,cities%20on%20the%20Gulf%20coast.

Belles, J., Dolce, C., Kaiser, C., & Tonks, S. October 2024. Hurricane Milton Brought Devastation Across Central Florida. Accessed November 3, 2024. https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-10-09-hurricane-milton-forecast-landfall-florida-storm-surge-wind

Gangcuangco, Terry. November 2024. Chubb Estimates Losses from Hurricane Milton. Accessed November 3, 2024. https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/catastrophe/chubb-estimates-losses-from-hurricane-milton-512398.aspx 

Isidore, C. & Egan, M. October 2024.Nearly 2,000 Florida gas stations have run out of fuel,  Hurricane Milton could cause even more trouble. Accessed November 3, 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/08/business/hurricane-milton-florida-gasoline-shortages/index.html

Lamb, Anna. October 2024. Amid Hurricane Milton’s Devastation, a Sliver of Good News. Accessed November 3, 2024. https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2024/10/amid-hurricane-miltons-devastation-a-sliver-of-good-news/

National Hurricane Center. October 2024. Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton. Accessed November 3, 2024.  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/203803.shtml?swath#contents

Price, Kiley. October 2024. After Hurricanes Helene and Milton, Bacteria and Chemicals May Lurk in Flood Waters. Accessed November 3, 2024. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11102024/todays-climate-hurricane-milton-chemicals-sewage-floods/ 

Schilken, C. October 2024. Hurricane Milton rips off Ray's Tropicana Roof that was built to withstand 115-mph winds. Accessed November 3, 2024. https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2024-10-10/hurricane-milton-tropicana-field-raymond-james-stadium 

St. John, A. October 2024. Climate change gave significant boost to Milton’s destructive rain, winds, scientists say. Accessed November 3, 2024. https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-milton-climate-change-greenhouse-gases-fossil-fuels-aa1c971c228feb9da6f36fb9cc46ee81